Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:05:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16bd…0f01 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$1
other 31% $0
politics 24% +$2
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.8%
all 34 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage444d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $59 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $22 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $28 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -16%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $1 $0 -38%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $3 $0 +9%
Will Charles Leclerc finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $23 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $27 $0 -1%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 05 $26 +$1 +5%
Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $27 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $30 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $30 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $29 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 31d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $29 31d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $13 32d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $16 32d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $31 32d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $31 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.89 · official $26.89 (match) · 86 history records