Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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16 0x16bd…e288 sports 121 markets active 11d ago coverage 101d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$115,989 (+41%) realized +$111,037 · open +$4,952
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%42W / 124L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,330per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$1,124est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$45,761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$6,957
world 22% −$2,374
politics 21% −$2,146
other 14% −$3,953
economics 1% −$2,193
tech 0% −$464
finance 0% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -65.7% -69.0% 2% 2% -99.5%
≤30d 64 -64.7% -68.1% 3% 2% -61.6%
≤90d 142 -33.0% -39.4% 21% 17% -30.9%
all 166 -24.0% -31.3% 25% 21% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 21% -22.6%
10% -37.9% 20% -30.0%
15% ← realistic here -43.9% 19% -36.8%
20% -49.4% 19% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,417) neutral
Persistence
early +18% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
24.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,880 vs −$867 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$45,761
Realized+$111,037
Unrealized+$4,952
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses42 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,124
Open positions93
Markets (closed)166 / 121
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$2,330
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 93 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $5,304 $6,521 +$1,217 (+23%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $5,455 $4,415 −$1,040 (-19%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 55¢ 60¢ $3,432 $3,713 +$281 (+8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 12¢ 14¢ $2,159 $2,622 +$464 (+21%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 30¢ 19¢ $3,960 $2,580 −$1,381 (-35%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,253 $2,478 +$224 (+10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 23¢ 22¢ $2,363 $2,248 −$116 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,178 $2,196 +$19 (+1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 14¢ $99 $1,770 +$1,671 (+1686%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 33¢ 24¢ $2,200 $1,567 −$633 (-29%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $1,548 $1,397 −$150 (-10%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $553 $1,140 +$587 (+106%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $932 $958 +$26 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 5¢ 6¢ $817 $905 +$89 (+11%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $532 $780 +$249 (+47%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $104 $767 +$662 (+636%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $104 $700 +$596 (+572%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $727 $683 −$43 (-6%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $99 $565 +$466 (+470%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 61¢ 90¢ $276 $410 +$134 (+48%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $104 $367 +$262 (+252%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $450 $340 −$110 (-24%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $41 $305 +$264 (+641%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $104 $300 +$196 (+188%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $104 $260 +$156 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Jun 29 $512 −$515 -101%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $566 −$566 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 202 Jun 29 $134 −$134 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 29 $659 −$659 -100%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 29 $127 −$162 -128%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jun 29 $67 −$37 -56%
49ers vs. Cardinals Jun 29 $922 −$922 -100%
Packers vs. Giants Jun 29 $709 −$709 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Jun 29 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? Jun 29 $48 −$46 -96%
Seahawks vs. Rams Jun 29 $370 −$370 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Jun 29 $1,342 −$1,342 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M? Jun 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Lions vs. Eagles Jun 29 $965 −$965 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Jun 29 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
AOC announces senate run in 2025? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 29 $10,438 −$10,438 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jun 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 29 $236 −$210 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Jun 29 $381 −$381 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Sharks vs. Flames Jun 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Jun 29 $3 +$4,905 +140353%
Commanders vs. Dolphins Jun 29 $440 −$440 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,635 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,996 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,379 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $528 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,943 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 11d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $84 37d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,538 60d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $164 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $29 63d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $477 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,761.00 · official $45,760.14 (match) · 3500 history records