Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16bb…8492
sports · 422 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
−$124,964 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$125,787 · open +$823
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$23,576
Realized−$125,787
Unrealized+$823
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses199 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$52,237
Open positions5
Markets (closed)417 / 422
Avg bet$8,747
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 5 History 417 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72,581
7 days−$6,017
14 days−$11,936
30 days−$233,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $18,432 $19,141 +$709 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $2,456 $2,490 +$34 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $1,120 $1,141 +$21 (+2%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ 69¢ $612 $709 +$97 (+16%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $67 $62 −$6 (-8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 56¢ 59¢ $32 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 47¢ 0¢ $5,640 $0 −$5,640 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Los Angeles Angels 38¢ 0¢ $5,700 $0 −$5,700 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $3,571 $0 −$3,571 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Texas Rangers 57¢ 0¢ $474 $0 −$474 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Cincinnati Reds 40¢ 0¢ $3,013 $0 −$3,013 (-100%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ 0¢ $1,026 $0 −$1,026 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 48¢ 0¢ $9,600 $0 −$9,600 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $3,226 $0 −$3,226 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 44¢ 0¢ $12,327 $0 −$12,327 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 45¢ 0¢ $13,500 $0 −$13,500 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 18¢ 0¢ $2,700 $0 −$2,700 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 46¢ 0¢ $23,000 $0 −$23,000 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 41¢ 0¢ $6,150 $0 −$6,150 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $459 $0 −$459 (-100%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 64¢ 0¢ $1,467 $0 −$1,467 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Timberwolves 47¢ 0¢ $2,019 $0 −$2,019 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 55¢ 0¢ $14,655 $0 −$14,655 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ 0¢ $957 $0 −$957 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $28,668 +$19,332 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $1,340 −$1,319 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1,396 −$1,375 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $35,500 +$33,287 +94%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $14,742 −$14,534 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $3,113 −$3,069 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $128 −$127 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $1,985 −$1,959 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $273 +$235 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $3,971 +$6,029 +152%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 11 $110 +$130 +119%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $8,220 +$6,267 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $15,292 +$27,565 +180%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $27,196 +$21,621 +80%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $6,694 +$6,772 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $269 +$232 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5,360 −$5,286 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $171 −$168 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $214 −$211 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $13,476 −$13,265 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $7,686 −$7,577 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5,659 +$5,070 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5,809 +$5,637 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $18,812 +$16,188 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $13,422 −$13,200 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $21,499 −$21,200 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $8,668 +$16,332 +188%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $23,863 −$23,538 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $34,170 +$25,014 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $5,548 +$4,230 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $180 +$189 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $21,868 −$21,500 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 07 $4,413 −$4,362 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $12,904 −$12,690 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $18,297 −$18,000 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,766 −$2,700 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $679 +$723 +106%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $4,182 +$3,320 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $16,401 +$22,884 +140%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $26,429 +$18,571 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $22,297 −$22,000 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $23,373 −$23,000 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $6,036 −$5,956 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $2,455 −$2,400 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $19,900 −$19,600 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $8,385 +$10,787 +129%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $54 +$32 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $26 +$31 +119%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $678 +$561 +83%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 05 $10,905 −$10,699 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$121,295
other 0% −$3,669
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,340 9h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,396 9h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5,175 14h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25,875 14h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3,986 15h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $464 15h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $0 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $20 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $27 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $1 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $14,695 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5,420 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10,662 17h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $21,147 18h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $7,522 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2,615 18h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $3,113 18h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 54¢ $128 18h
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,985 18h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $27,034 33h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 39¢ $3,971 33h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $15,292 33h
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $130 38h
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $29 38h
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $524 38h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $54 39h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2,759 39h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $132 40h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3,506 40h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $244 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 47% -10.4%
≤30d 235 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 44% -20.1%
≤90d 417 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 47% -12.6%
all 417 -6.3% -15.2% 48% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 47% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 47% -21.0%
15% -30.8% 47% -28.6%
20% -37.5% 47% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,575.58 · official $23,575.69 (match) · 1462 history records