Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16b6…7533
world · 144 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses99 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)119 / 144
History coverage162d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 25 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 62¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 77¢ 87¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 85¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 84¢ 68¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No 94¢ 83¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 68¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 41¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 82¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 79¢ 81¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 92¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3 $0 -18%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $6 −$1 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -45%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $6 +$1 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $3 +$1 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $4 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $2 $0 +6%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +6%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $7 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 10 $1 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 10 $13 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 10 $2 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $16 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $2 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 03 $1 $0 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? May 03 $3 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 03 $3 $0 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 03 $1 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 03 $2 $0 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? May 03 $4 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? May 03 $5 $0 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? May 03 $11 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 22 $1 $0 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $3 −$2 -55%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 20 $1 $0 +19%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026? Apr 20 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% $0
world 16% −$4
other 5% +$1
crypto 2% −$1
politics 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $0 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $0 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $1 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $0 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $0 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $0 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $0 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $0 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $0 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.8% -0.7% 62% 38% +2.6%
≤30d 27 -3.7% -12.9% 67% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 106 +0.3% -9.3% 84% 15% -8.2%
all 119 -1.2% -10.6% 83% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 13% -9.4%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.54 · official $40.27 · 842 history records