Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16b5…3e71
crypto · 854 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$127 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$128 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$87
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses417 / 435
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)852 / 854
History coverage185d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 852 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$1
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5 Under 86¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Spurs 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 102.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Spurs 91¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 116.5 Under 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 122.5 Under 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 99.5 Over 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Spurs 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Knicks 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 98.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 104.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Knicks 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Knicks 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Spurs 97¢ 46¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 38¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 50¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 50¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 50¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 38¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Up 49¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 84¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 103.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 124.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5 Jun 14 $5 −$1 -13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$6 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 123.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $65 −$2 -4%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$1 -7%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 99.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 102.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 −$3 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 116.5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $5 −$1 -17%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 06 $5 $0 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 104.5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 98.5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 122.5 Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 107.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +10%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 05 $5 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 05 $65 +$1 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 05 $75 +$2 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 05 $50 +$9 +18%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $50 −$6 -12%
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 27 $5 −$1 -19%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $50 −$4 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$83
crypto 35% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1 25m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 103.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 25m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 26m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 SELL Under 99¢ $0 33m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 SELL Under 99¢ $4 33m
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 97¢ $5 40m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 41m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 124.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 51m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 53m
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) SELL Spurs 74¢ $4 53m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 103.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 57m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 BUY Under 89¢ $5 58m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 SELL Under 76¢ $4 59m
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 SELL Under 82¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) SELL Spurs 74¢ $4 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 115.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5 SELL Under 76¢ $4 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5 BUY Under 86¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 SELL Over 79¢ $5 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) BUY Spurs 97¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 124.5 BUY Under 88¢ $5 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 100.5 BUY Over 87¢ $5 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Spurs 87¢ $5 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 80¢ $47 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 84¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.8% -8.8% 65% 31% -11.7%
≤30d 79 +1.4% -8.2% 71% 25% -7.9%
≤90d 284 +0.2% -9.4% 52% 32% -9.1%
all 852 -1.4% -10.8% 49% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 40% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 23% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 22% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 21% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.94 · official $86.94 (match) · 2184 history records