trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 08 | $16 | +$3 | +17% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 13 | $30 | +$3 | +9% |
| Nuggets vs. Suns | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Pistons | Mar 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide | Mar 23 | $1 | +$1 | +103% |
| Hurricanes vs. Penguins | Mar 23 | $2 | +$1 | +72% |
| Spread: 76ers (-5.5) | Mar 22 | $101 | +$101 | +100% |
| Celtics vs. Spurs | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Heat | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bruins vs. Capitals | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Kings | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Heat | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Providence Friars vs. Butler Bulldogs | Mar 12 | $1 | +$1 | +84% |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,500 on the final trading day of January | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -33.2% | -39.6% | 42% | 33% | +46.2% |
| all | 14 | -22.4% | -29.7% | 50% | 36% | +46.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -29.7% | 36% | +46.1% |
| 10% | -36.5% | 29% | +32.1% |
| 15% | -42.6% | 29% | +19.3% |
| 20% | -48.2% | 29% | +7.6% |