Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16b2…d33b
crypto · 410 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$676 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$671 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$141
Realized−$671
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses207 / 183
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions20
Markets (closed)390 / 410
History coverage160d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 20 History 390 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-29? No 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $350 +$1 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Spread: Málaga CF (-2.5) Jun 10 $180 $0 +0%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $301 +$36 +12%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 22 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $175 $0 +0%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 5.5 May 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5) May 17 $120 $0 +0%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 5.5 May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $130 $0 +0%
Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Famalicão (-2.5) May 17 $90 $0 +0%
FC Famalicão vs. FC Alverca: O/U 2.5 May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 5.5 May 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $260 $0 +0%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 5.5 May 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5) May 16 $185 $0 +0%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5) May 14 $480 $0 +0%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 13 $485 $0 +0%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $400 +$1 +0%
Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) May 12 $85 +$3 +3%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$2 +97%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $2 +$2 +114%
Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF: Both Teams to Score May 10 $85 $0 +0%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -99%
CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $200 $0 +0%
Spread: EC Bahia (-1.5) May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Barcelona SC (-1.5) Apr 30 $45 $0 +0%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Apr 30 $5 +$4 +79%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $3 +$4 +146%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 29 $450 −$450 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (-1.5) Apr 26 $55 +$10 +18%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% −$521
other 28% −$98
crypto 5% −$7
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $150 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY No 100¢ $350 2d
Spread: Málaga CF (-2.5) BUY UD Las Palmas 100¢ $180 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $130 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $70 2d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $301 5d
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 28¢ $5 8d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 8d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 8d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 8d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 26d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.4% -22.6% 83% 17% -6.6%
≤30d 22 +1.8% -7.9% 95% 14% -8.2%
≤90d 362 -14.2% -22.3% 53% 25% -14.0%
all 390 -13.4% -21.7% 53% 27% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 27% -14.1%
10% -29.2% 24% -22.3%
15% -36.0% 23% -29.8%
20% -42.3% 21% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.04 · official $141.06 (match) · 1035 history records