Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
16 0x16ae…1557 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+3%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$109
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 58% -0.9%
≤30d 26 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 58% -0.9%
≤90d 26 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 58% -0.9%
all 26 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 58% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 58% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 42% -10.4%
15% -24.9% 31% -19.1%
20% -32.3% 23% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$25 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $106 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$18 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$56 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $85 +$65 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$41 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$16 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $117 +$33 +28%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $74 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$7 -44%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $118 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $106 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $27 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $13 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $120 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $64 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $151 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $32 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $53 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records