Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
16 0x16ad…0202 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,129 (-53%) realized −$931 · open −$198
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$125
14 days−$882
30 days−$882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$719
crypto 21% −$166
world 16% +$35
finance 11% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -21.5% -29.0% 50% 50% -44.4%
≤30d 9 -38.7% -44.6% 33% 33% -73.3%
≤90d 9 -38.7% -44.6% 33% 33% -73.3%
all 9 -38.7% -44.6% 33% 33% -73.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.6% 33% -73.3%
10% -49.9% 33% -75.8%
15% -54.7% 33% -78.2%
20% -59.1% 33% -80.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$173 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized−$931
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 14¢ 16¢ $313 $351 +$38 (+12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $177 $173 −$4 (-2%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Yes $22 $20 −$2 (-11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes 33¢ $241 $13 −$229 (-95%)
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Yes $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $127 +$73 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $206 −$88 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $35 +$34 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $86 −$83 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $597 −$590 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $178 1h
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY Yes $4 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $234 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $14 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $36 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $28 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $91 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $87 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $115 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $33 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $32 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Up $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $559.69 · official $559.69 (match) · 63 history records