Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x16ac…d573 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$143 (-9%) realized −$58 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 50% -7.3%
≤30d 2 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 50% -7.3%
≤90d 2 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 50% -7.3%
all 2 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 50% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 50% -7.3%
10% -7.1% 50% -16.2%
15% -16.1% 0% -24.3%
20% -24.3% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $500 $410 −$90 (-18%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $170 $175 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $975 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.00 · official $585.00 (match) · 15 history records