Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x16a4…a0c8 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$458 (-63%) realized −$457 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$175
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$423
other 26% −$1
tech 5% $0
crypto 4% −$29
politics 3% $0
weather 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -66.3% -69.5% 33% 0% -96.0%
≤90d 11 -35.8% -41.9% 64% 0% -86.9%
all 16 -30.8% -37.4% 69% 0% -80.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 0% -80.2%
10% -43.4% 0% -82.1%
15% -48.9% 0% -83.8%
20% -53.9% 0% -85.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$90 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$457
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage169d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $135 $133 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $177 −$175 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 20 $9 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $233 −$228 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 3? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Apr 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Apr 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 3? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? Feb 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 07 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.35 · official $133.35 (match) · 28 history records