Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x16a4…fac8
sports · 51 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$112 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$113 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$7
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage198d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 1 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$50
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? No 62¢ 81¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev Martin Landaluce 62¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Wild Wild 52¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres Sabres 53¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 86¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina Iga Swiatek 66¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Wild vs. Avalanche Wild 94¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Parma: Barbora Krejcikova vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Oeiras 4: Petr Brunclik vs Jaime Faria Petr Brunclik 64¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 22 $8,424 −$8 -0%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026? May 22 $799 −$1 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? May 21 $8,571 −$9 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $410 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $78 +$2 +2%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $29 −$23 -81%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 18 $7,947 −$36 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $87 +$13 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 15 $17 −$10 -58%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will CF Pachuca vs. Pumas de la UNAM end in a draw? May 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $2 $0 +23%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $16 −$4 -25%
Will Bolton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 $0 +16%
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club end in a draw? May 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Hazem SC end in a draw? May 14 $2 $0 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $8 −$2 -25%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 May 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $6 +$2 +25%
Parma: Susan Bandecchi vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 14 $2 $0 +13%
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremska May 14 $2 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner May 14 $7 +$6 +81%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff May 14 $11 +$2 +17%
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Zizou Bergs May 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Oeiras 4: Petr Brunclik vs Jaime Faria May 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Paris: Alina Charaeva vs Tamara Korpatsch May 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Parma: Barbora Krejcikova vs Viktorija Golubic May 14 $13 −$5 -38%
Paris: Emma Navarro vs Katie Volynets May 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Paris: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Blinkova May 14 $9 +$2 +19%
Parma: Dominika Salkova vs Camila Osorio May 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $10 −$6 -62%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $23 −$9 -38%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $14 +$8 +56%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 10 $25 +$6 +24%
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 16 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $476 −$2 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $160 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $1 $0 -10%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $60 +$9 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 25? Dec 27 $248 $0 -0%
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch? Dec 25 $2 −$1 -50%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 07 $3 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 4? Dec 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 27? Dec 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 27? Nov 27 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% −$17
sports 30% −$46
crypto 6% −$53
economics 3% −$1
other 1% +$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $52 9d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $64 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 33 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 52% -9.9%
≤90d 37 -10.1% -18.7% 59% 51% -9.9%
all 50 -8.4% -17.1% 48% 40% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 40% -9.9%
10% -25.1% 18% -18.5%
15% -32.3% 10% -26.4%
20% -38.9% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.53 · official $6.53 (match) · 949 history records