Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x16a1…4e31 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+7%) realized +$61 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$106
14 days+$106
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$53
other 48% +$13
crypto 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +54.1% +39.4% 100% 67% +53.5%
≤30d 5 +30.8% +18.3% 80% 40% +15.3%
≤90d 14 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 50% -3.2%
all 14 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 50% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 50% -3.2%
10% -12.5% 50% -12.4%
15% -21.0% 43% -20.9%
20% -28.7% 43% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)14 / 19
History coverage144d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 −$10 -9%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $43 −$42 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $41 −$36 -88%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $50 −$33 -66%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $25 +$8 +32%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $30 +$15 +51%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $25 +$18 +70%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $25 +$23 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 27 Apr 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 29 $35 +$19 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $20 3d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $32 3d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 20d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 44¢ $92 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $102 20d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 20d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 20d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 40d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $5 44d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 44d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 44d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 44d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 44d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score SELL No 69¢ $34 45d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $46 45d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $25 45d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 45d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 50d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $25 51d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 51d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 64¢ $35 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 27 BUY Yes 54¢ $24 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.62 · official $163.62 (match) · 84 history records