Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1699…5d32 crypto 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%92W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$119
14 days−$245
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$777
sports 37% +$673
other 6% −$209
finance 3% +$32
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.4% -2.8% 62% 46% -20.8%
≤30d 64 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 42% -12.2%
≤90d 161 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 42% -11.0%
all 161 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 42% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 42% -11.0%
10% -22.5% 32% -19.5%
15% -30.0% 27% -27.3%
20% -36.8% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$55 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses92 / 69
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage43d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $153 −$147 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$91 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$31 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$13 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $34 +$31 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $54 −$49 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 19 $151 −$72 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $369 −$116 -31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $115 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$34 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $104 +$106 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $71 −$67 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $261 −$261 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $229 +$32 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $358 −$345 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $322 +$259 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $283 +$47 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $112 +$171 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$101 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $200 −$163 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $67 +$63 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $394 +$407 +103%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $354 +$415 +117%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $73 +$67 +92%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $417 +$69 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$55 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$15 +20%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $279 +$262 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$99 -97%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $432 +$287 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $57 −$54 -95%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $97 −$40 -41%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $318 −$106 -34%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $254 −$51 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $23 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 4¢ $64 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $51 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 42h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European SELL Fire Flux Esports 100¢ $44 43h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY Fire Flux Esports 89¢ $39 44h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European SELL NAVI Junior 10¢ $36 44h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 32¢ $24 46h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 32¢ $88 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $20 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 571 history records