trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -81.2% | -83.0% | 0% | 0% | -83.0% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -18.8% | -26.5% | 25% | 25% | -87.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -21.6% | -29.0% | 33% | 22% | -43.2% |
| all | 13 | -2.4% | -11.7% | 54% | 46% | -22.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -11.7% | 46% | -22.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -20.1% | 38% | -30.0% |
| 15% | -27.8% | 31% | -36.8% |
| 20% | -34.9% | 15% | -43.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 73¢ | $11,562 | $15,442 | +$3,880 (+34%) |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 74¢ | $8,033 | $12,319 | +$4,286 (+53%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | Jun 16 | $182 | −$148 | -81% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? | Jun 15 | $180 | +$326 | +181% |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $511 | −$395 | -77% |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $4,310 | −$4,223 | -98% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | Apr 28 | $2,926 | −$31 | -1% |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | Apr 24 | $6,578 | −$6,473 | -98% |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Apr 23 | $2,610 | +$315 | +12% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Apr 07 | $10,082 | −$3,504 | -35% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? | Mar 31 | $9,784 | +$298 | +3% |
| Warriors vs. Rockets | Mar 06 | $100 | +$43 | +43% |
| GPT-5.4 released by March 5? | Mar 05 | $7,039 | +$2,692 | +38% |
| GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026? | Mar 04 | $4,664 | +$2,375 | +51% |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | Feb 26 | $3,548 | +$1,115 | +31% |