Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1695…1d78
weather · 797 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$629 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$627 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$5
Realized−$627
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses679 / 169
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)848 / 797
Avg bet$9
Trades / day237.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 848 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$684
7 days−$618
14 days−$627
30 days−$627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 72¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 72¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on May 29? No 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? No 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on June 2? No 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? No 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? No 88¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? No 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? No 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 2? No 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 31? No 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 3? No 98¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30? No 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 30? No 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? No 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 29? No 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? No 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? No 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 30? No 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 30? No 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May 30? No 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 31? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 29? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 29? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 30? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 29? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$421
weather 38% −$9
sports 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -17.5% -25.4% 56% 40% -21.2%
≤30d 848 -7.0% -15.8% 80% 20% -17.0%
≤90d 848 -7.0% -15.8% 80% 20% -17.0%
all 848 -7.0% -15.8% 80% 20% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover237.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 20% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 6% -24.9%
15% -31.2% 4% -32.2%
20% -38.0% 1% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $4.97 (match) · 3500 history records