Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:20:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1695…324c other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,171 (+13%) realized +$4,818 · open −$647
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%46W / 103L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,523
7 days+$1,029
14 days+$1,198
30 days+$2,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$566
sports 29% +$1,809
finance 16% +$2,313
world 5% +$386
crypto 1% −$78
politics 0% +$109
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +10.1% -0.4% 35% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 86 +15.8% +4.8% 38% 37% -0.2%
≤90d 112 +18.4% +7.1% 34% 33% +1.5%
all 149 +3.8% -6.1% 31% 30% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 30% +4.9%
10% -15.1% 28% -5.1%
15% -23.3% 26% -14.3%
20% -30.8% 26% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$112 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$1,030
Realized+$4,818
Unrealized−$647
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses46 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions11
Markets (closed)149 / 160
History coverage162d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 49¢ $460 $490 +$30 (+7%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $212 $110 −$102 (-48%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $171 $106 −$65 (-38%)
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 14¢ $165 $101 −$64 (-39%)
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 18¢ $185 $90 −$95 (-51%)
Adam Hložek: 1+ assists Yes 20¢ 10¢ $150 $71 −$79 (-52%)
Patrik Schick: 1+ assists Yes 13¢ 8¢ $68 $42 −$26 (-38%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $55 $11 −$44 (-81%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-61%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 1¢ $99 $2 −$97 (-98%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $154 −$141 -92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $1,350 −$1,012 -75%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? Jun 18 $20 −$19 -95%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 18 $45 −$43 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 18 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 18 $275 +$725 +263%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $417 +$583 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $362 +$638 +176%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 18 $271 −$266 -98%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $427 −$420 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $447 −$168 -38%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $222 −$202 -91%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $87 −$85 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $685 +$833 +122%
Igor Matanović: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $53 −$52 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $305 +$446 +146%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $408 −$403 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $142 −$140 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $152 +$148 +97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $229 +$279 +122%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $213 −$210 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $113 −$38 -34%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $155 +$372 +239%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $455 +$258 +57%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$221 +216%
Aymen Hussein: 2+ goals Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $169 +$244 +144%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $244 +$256 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $23 +$177 +785%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$413 +4015%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $90 −$89 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $27 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $6 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $43 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 1h
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $56 1h
Adam Hložek: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $117 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $16 1h
Patrik Schick: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $188 1h
Patrik Schick: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $67 1h
Adam Hložek: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Adam Hložek: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $113 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $351 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 5h
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $183 16h
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $271 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $178 16h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $275 16h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $417 16h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $427 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $22 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $146 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.79 · official $1,049.70 · 728 history records