Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x1691…f891 sports 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%278W / 141L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$550est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$861
14 days−$861
30 days−$1,862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$565
other 6% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +1.8% -7.9% 62% 62% -29.6%
≤30d 51 +4.7% -5.2% 61% 61% -24.7%
≤90d 316 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 61% -11.7%
all 419 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 62% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 62% -10.2%
10% -16.8% 49% -18.8%
15% -24.9% 34% -26.7%
20% -32.2% 22% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$134 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses278 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$550
Open positions2
Markets (closed)419 / 421
History coverage121d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 93¢ 92¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Arthur Rinderknech 70¢ 100¢ $49 $70 +$21 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi Jun 29 $178 +$72 +40%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $188 +$51 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 29 $84 −$84 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 29 $43 +$12 +29%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $235 −$61 -26%
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Jun 29 $206 +$30 +14%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 +$40 +114%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $118 +$47 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 −$31 -62%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $73 +$10 +13%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka Jun 27 $267 −$16 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $119 +$23 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $149 +$109 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $89 −$89 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $112 +$30 +27%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $89 +$23 +26%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$31 +154%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $60 +$25 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $50 −$33 -65%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $147 +$52 +36%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn Jun 25 $120 +$27 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $119 −$119 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 25 $1,298 −$991 -76%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $121 −$7 -6%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $91 +$31 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $1,029 −$604 -59%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $121 +$37 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $303 +$331 +109%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $304 +$64 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,193 −$1,193 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $54 −$15 -27%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $456 +$147 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $152 +$166 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $364 −$325 -89%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $68 +$57 +84%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $52 +$85 +164%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $121 −$121 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $308 +$107 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $101 −$34 -33%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $107 +$64 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $152 +$87 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $53 −$46 -86%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $168 −$168 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $148 +$25 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $268 +$100 +37%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $333 −$17 -5%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $248 +$29 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $486 +$414 +85%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $153 +$28 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Arthur Rinderknech 70¢ $49 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $250 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 93¢ $200 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $239 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Ethan Quinn 70¢ $127 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Ethan Quinn 72¢ $51 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 78¢ $188 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 100¢ $55 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $43 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Andrey Rublev 56¢ $174 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 74¢ $235 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill SELL Rafael Jodar 100¢ $235 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 87¢ $206 7h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 37h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 39h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $165 39h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $118 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 41h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 71¢ $84 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $83 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 88¢ $73 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Karolina Muchova 100¢ $223 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Karolina Muchova 79¢ $178 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 20¢ $28 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 61¢ $89 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $119 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $149 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 70¢ $89 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.74 · official $266.74 (match) · 1025 history records