Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x168f…9e00
other · 1119 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,026 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,115 · open −$662
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,335
Realized−$3,115
Unrealized−$662
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses28 / 1056
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions111
Markets (closed)1084 / 1119
History coverage6d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day559.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 111 History 1084 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,400
7 days−$3,115
14 days−$3,115
30 days−$3,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 93¢ $367 $353 −$14 (-4%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 91¢ 80¢ $364 $320 −$44 (-12%)
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $372 $291 −$81 (-22%)
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth be between 2% and 3%? No 99¢ 100¢ $282 $286 +$4 (+1%)
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? No 84¢ 79¢ $257 $241 −$15 (-6%)
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 81¢ $243 $231 −$13 (-5%)
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? No 76¢ 80¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 96¢ 86¢ $192 $172 −$20 (-11%)
Will USD be between 1.5M and 1.6M Iranian rials on June 30? No 95¢ 83¢ $196 $171 −$25 (-13%)
Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $157 $160 +$3 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $157 $160 +$3 (+2%)
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 77¢ $163 $157 −$5 (-3%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 24¢ 24¢ $144 $147 +$3 (+2%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 44¢ 34¢ $156 $119 −$37 (-24%)
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? No 39¢ 32¢ $141 $114 −$27 (-19%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No 91¢ 82¢ $112 $101 −$11 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026? No 96¢ 92¢ $101 $96 −$5 (-5%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 33¢ 26¢ $111 $90 −$22 (-20%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 94¢ 90¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $88 $65 −$22 (-26%)
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? No 81¢ 72¢ $63 $57 −$7 (-10%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 67¢ 57¢ $63 $54 −$9 (-14%)
Will Mikel Merino score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 49¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 76¢ $53 $43 −$10 (-19%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth Jun 13 $282 +$4 +1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 +15%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -202%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 13 $0 $0 -10%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -256%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Jun 13 $558 −$559 -100%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Jun 13 $0 −$15 -85102%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May? Jun 13 $5 −$20 -410%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parl Jun 13 $0 −$1 -16828%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? Jun 13 $9 −$13 -152%
Will Leonard Jackson advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 13 $0 $0 -335%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 13 $0 −$8 -13042%
Will Michael McGuire be the Republican nominee for NJ-03? Jun 13 $10 −$11 -105%
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $42B by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Named storm forms before hurricane season? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will President Trump sign less than 5 pieces of legislation into law i Jun 13 $4 −$6 -154%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Montpellier HSC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Jun 13 $0 $0 -729%
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,850 (LOW) by April 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Le Mans FC achieve promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1 for the 2026 Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Pedro Antonio Casas advance from the CA-38 primary election? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nicholas Thompson advance from the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will FlyQuest win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 13 $5 −$6 -120%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by December 31? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Applied Materials' Semiconductor Systems revenue be above $6.0B i Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -933%
Will the Patek Index hit $104,000 (LOW) by April 30? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Jun 13 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30? Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $496 −$4 -1%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market clos Jun 13 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO Jun 13 $380 −$7 -2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $17 $0 +3%
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -2%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $244 −$30 -12%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $452 −$19 -4%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $142 −$4 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 13 $48 −$12 -25%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 13 $617 −$21 -3%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$1,191
world 21% −$506
politics 18% −$592
tech 6% −$36
sports 6% −$176
finance 2% −$67
economics 1% −$23
crypto 0% +$94
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 4m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $31 4m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 4m
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? SELL No 60¢ $41 4m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 5m
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? BUY No 61¢ $43 5m
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $44 14m
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $364 17m
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market clos SELL Yes 5¢ $7 18m
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO SELL No 91¢ $1 20m
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO SELL No 92¢ $366 20m
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 93¢ $372 21m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $17 22m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $17 22m
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 30m
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 31m
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $33 35m
Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 35m
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL No 89¢ $44 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $32 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $15 36m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $48 37m
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 38m
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? BUY No 88¢ $18 40m
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 41m
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 49m
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 49m
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $20 52m
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $20 52m
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 24¢ $144 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1084 -1.8% -11.2% 3% 1% -13.5%
≤30d 1084 -1.8% -11.2% 3% 1% -13.5%
≤90d 1084 -1.8% -11.2% 3% 1% -13.5%
all 1084 -1.8% -11.2% 3% 1% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover559.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 1% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 1% -21.8%
15% -27.4% 1% -29.3%
20% -34.5% 1% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,335.07 · official $4,330.32 (match) · 3500 history records