Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x168f…72bb
crypto · 397 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$50 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses296 / 97
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)393 / 397
History coverage139d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 4 History 393 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$33
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 94¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 58¢ 46¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Atlanta Dream 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Athletics 79¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 45¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Over 71¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Spurs 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $9 +$5 +52%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $8 +$15 +180%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $7 +$6 +93%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +45%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $5 +$3 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $6 +$4 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 03 $2 +$1 +24%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC? May 30 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $13 $0 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% +$7
politics 17% −$3
sports 12% −$22
other 11% −$30
world 6% −$5
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $5 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $3 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $10 13h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $6 45h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $7 2d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $6 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $10 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $8 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $9 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL No 83¢ $5 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 61¢ $5 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 79¢ $6 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 35¢ $8 4d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 83¢ $5 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $7 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $6 6d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ $7 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $5 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 60¢ $6 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $5 9d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 80¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -22.8% -30.1% 35% 35% -25.5%
≤30d 57 -11.2% -19.6% 72% 19% -17.1%
≤90d 248 -2.5% -11.8% 80% 6% -10.5%
all 393 -2.2% -11.5% 75% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -10.3%
10% -20.0% 2% -18.9%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.7%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.56 · official $33.56 (match) · 1670 history records