Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x168c…7993 other 40 markets active 1d ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2
other 16% −$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 6% +$1
weather 5% −$4
tech 5% $0
politics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.5% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 40 -5.8% -14.8% 42% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -10.5%
10% -23.0% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage468d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $21 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $71 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Francis Arinze be the next pope? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 24 $7 $0 +3%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -41%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 02 $10 $0 -3%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on March 18? Mar 21 $12 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $11 $0 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5? Mar 04 $16 −$4 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $10 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $11 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $4 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $20 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $25 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records