Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x168c…53b0 crypto 1411 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,003 (-1%) realized −$1,054 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1392W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day94.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days−$719
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$433
other 7% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1413 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 1413 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.1%
all 1413 -0.5% -10.0% 99% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$88 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$1,054
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1392 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1413 / 1411
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day94.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 0¢ 98¢ $0 $51 +$51 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $52 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $41 10m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 14m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $55 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $39 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $21 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $23 23m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $17 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $23 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 39m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.57 · official $50.88 (match) · 3500 history records