Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x168c…f24b sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$170 (+8%) realized +$316 · open −$146
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$298
other 20% +$272
world 5% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 64% -3.1%
≤30d 11 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 64% -3.1%
≤90d 11 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 64% -3.1%
all 11 +5.2% -4.8% 64% 64% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 64% -3.1%
10% -13.9% 64% -12.4%
15% -22.2% 55% -20.8%
20% -29.9% 27% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$103 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$316
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 56¢ 56¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jessica Pegula 57¢ 78¢ $143 $196 +$54 (+38%)
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 67¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 19 $201 −$200 -99%
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Stian Klaassen Jun 18 $101 +$65 +65%
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Volodymyr Iakubenko Jun 18 $201 +$52 +26%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 18 $304 +$131 +43%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $100 −$12 -12%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $194 +$156 +81%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 57¢ $145 1h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Ane Mintegi Del Olmo 67¢ $202 1h
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt BUY Dominic Stephan Stricker 80¢ $201 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $101 5h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $101 7h
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Stian Klaassen BUY Noah Zamora 60¢ $101 17h
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Volodymyr Iakubenko SELL Volodymyr Iakubenko 100¢ $253 21h
ITF Kayseri: Matas Vasiliauskas vs Volodymyr Iakubenko BUY Volodymyr Iakubenko 79¢ $201 24h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Elizara Yaneva 100¢ $339 24h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 59¢ $202 27h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Elizara Yaneva 57¢ $95 27h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $88 27h
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 59¢ $101 27h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 28h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $350 31h
Colombia to win the second half? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 32h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 33h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $92 33h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.60 · official $396.64 (match) · 26 history records