Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x168a…da29 other 575 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 138d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,079 (-2%) realized −$7,202 · open +$1,123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate73%379W / 140L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$455per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$29,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$11,574
sports 3% +$965
culture 1% −$488
world 1% −$48
crypto 1% −$112
politics 0% −$357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 36% -19.0%
≤30d 84 +4.0% -5.9% 63% 48% -14.8%
≤90d 372 -3.1% -12.3% 65% 41% -20.7%
all 519 +5.4% -4.6% 73% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 43% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 29% -22.7%
15% -22.1% 22% -30.2%
20% -29.7% 17% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$427 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$29,640
Realized−$7,202
Unrealized+$1,123
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses379 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions60
Markets (closed)519 / 575
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$455
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 72¢ 73¢ $2,487 $2,521 +$35 (+1%)
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,360 $2,381 +$21 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 68¢ $1,965 $2,195 +$230 (+12%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 86¢ 88¢ $2,149 $2,191 +$43 (+2%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 87¢ 91¢ $1,640 $1,728 +$88 (+5%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $1,652 $1,722 +$70 (+4%)
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,582 $1,576 −$5 (-0%)
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,467 $1,489 +$22 (+1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 50¢ $1,514 $1,406 −$108 (-7%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 53¢ $1,246 $1,284 +$38 (+3%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 63¢ 64¢ $1,161 $1,162 +$1 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 85¢ $796 $953 +$157 (+20%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 77¢ 78¢ $935 $948 +$12 (+1%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 50¢ $799 $792 −$7 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 72¢ $724 $707 −$17 (-2%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 91¢ 92¢ $582 $584 +$3 (+0%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 89¢ 92¢ $465 $479 +$15 (+3%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 36¢ $399 $469 +$71 (+18%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 79¢ 92¢ $403 $466 +$63 (+16%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 82¢ 83¢ $327 $331 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $311 $308 −$4 (-1%)
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 94¢ 95¢ $291 $294 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $277 $288 +$11 (+4%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 13¢ $254 $275 +$21 (+8%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 98¢ $56 $251 +$196 (+351%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luciano Darderi win the 2025 Nordea Open? Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) win Best Supporting Actr Jun 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Hobart International: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 27 $47 −$42 -90%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $13 +$5 +39%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $357 +$98 +27%
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 25 $52 +$161 +307%
Canada to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 24 $73 +$51 +70%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -98%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $284 +$154 +54%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $145 +$9 +6%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $1,682 −$1,655 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +138%
Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $333 +$744 +223%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $825 +$371 +45%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,112 +$48 +4%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $710 +$53 +8%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,467 +$130 +9%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $158 +$123 +78%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $48 +$12 +26%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $56 +$27 +49%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $396 +$1,084 +274%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $790 −$790 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5,273 −$5,187 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $514 −$513 -100%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $119 −$118 -99%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $523 +$57 +11%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $719 +$33 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $817 +$49 +6%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 F Jun 13 $4 +$1 +25%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap in Practice 3 at the 2026 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Set 2 Winner: McNally vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $74 +$51 +69%
Set 2 Winner: Medvedev vs Boogaard Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 11 $48 −$20 -42%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Vekic Jun 11 $104 −$38 -37%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $19 −$18 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $658 −$652 -99%
Netherlands vs. Poland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $16 +$1 +4%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $189 +$53 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 47m
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $22 1h
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $0 2h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $18 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $18 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $18 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $12 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 87¢ $75 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 87¢ $26 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 91¢ $99 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 87¢ $360 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 87¢ $163 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 91¢ $39 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $6 4h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 91¢ $177 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 87¢ $11 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 87¢ $30 4h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 91¢ $140 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $439 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $17 4h
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY No 15¢ $10 4h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $3 4h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $1 4h
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY No 41¢ $12 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $148 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $31 4h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $31 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,640.50 · official $29,640.54 (match) · 3500 history records