Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x1688…22b9 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$34 (+8%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +284% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +233% what you keep after slip
Net edge+233%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$106
14 days+$106
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$87
other 41% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+247.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +283.6% +247.1% 71% 57% +10.4%
≤30d 7 +283.6% +247.1% 71% 57% +10.4%
≤90d 7 +283.6% +247.1% 71% 57% +10.4%
all 7 +283.6% +247.1% 71% 57% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +247.1% 57% +10.4%
10% +213.9% 43% -0.1%
15% +183.5% 43% -9.8%
20% +155.7% 29% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +284% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.56 per $1 lost it wins $6.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $108 +$42 +39%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $92 +$16 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $31 −$18 -59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $64 +$28 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $44 +$34 +78%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $78 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $148 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $108 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $108 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 78¢ $92 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $93 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $64 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 15¢ $12 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $31 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $82 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $78 44h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $78 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records