Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1685…6de4 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,981 (-12%) realized −$5,946 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$793per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$7,687
sports 33% +$1,741
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 48% -20.4%
≤30d 31 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 48% -20.4%
≤90d 31 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 48% -20.4%
all 31 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 48% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 48% -20.4%
10% -23.7% 35% -28.0%
15% ← realistic here -31.0% 26% -34.9%
20% -37.8% 19% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$3,564) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$409 vs −$1,281 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$5,946
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions32
Markets (closed)31 / 63
History coverage6d
Avg bet$793
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $70 $67 −$3 (-4%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-23%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Mbappe 60¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 78¢ 87¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,617 +$605 +13%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,564 −$2,714 -76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,021 +$787 +16%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $301 −$301 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5,534 +$1,375 +25%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,051 +$2,856 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,008 +$287 +10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,010 +$397 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,041 −$2,041 -100%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,069 +$224 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,013 +$614 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,565 −$4,565 -100%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $106 +$47 +44%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $352 +$102 +29%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,007 −$4,007 -100%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $200 +$12 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,012 +$582 +19%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $138 +$142 +103%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$8 +51%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +177%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,222 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $850 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $4,617 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $3,564 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,808 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $5,021 9h
Will France go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 11h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,909 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $5,534 30h
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,907 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $4,051 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 2d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,295 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $3,008 2d
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2d
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,407 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,010 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.35 · official $575.35 (match) · 129 history records