Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1685…f496
crypto · 25 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$23 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day128.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 32% -30.4%
≤30d 25 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 32% -30.4%
≤90d 25 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 32% -30.4%
all 25 -19.8% -27.4% 48% 32% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover128.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 32% -30.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 8% -37.1%
15% -40.7% 0% -43.2%
20% -46.5% 0% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records