Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x1683…0646 tech 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$440 (-22%) realized −$439 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$180
14 days+$180
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 50% −$670
other 16% +$54
tech 15% +$57
world 12% −$5
sports 7% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +58.2% +43.1% 100% 100% +38.2%
≤30d 2 +58.2% +43.1% 100% 100% +38.2%
≤90d 3 +56.0% +41.1% 100% 100% +37.9%
all 6 +2.8% -6.9% 67% 67% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 67% -30.0%
10% -15.9% 50% -36.7%
15% -24.0% 33% -42.8%
20% -31.4% 33% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$372 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$439
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage309d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $139 +$122 +88%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 25 $202 +$58 +29%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? May 20 $132 +$68 +52%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $100 −$73 -73%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 14 $329 +$54 +16%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Aug 22 $999 −$670 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $128 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $88 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 36d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 36d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 36d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $115 85d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 85d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 85d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 85d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 160d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 163d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $329 180d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 11¢ $329 307d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 35¢ $499 308d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 32¢ $500 309d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.87 · official $98.87 (match) · 21 history records