Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1683…5106 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$534 (-1%) realized −$506 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 43L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$726per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$6,895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$78
economics 26% +$7
other 18% −$25
weather 6% −$493
culture 0% −$2
world 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
sports 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -24.8% -32.0% 39% 9% -9.8%
≤30d 31 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 33 -16.5% -24.5% 45% 9% -9.7%
all 72 -11.1% -19.6% 40% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 8% -10.5%
10% -27.3% 6% -19.0%
15% -34.3% 4% -26.9%
20% -40.8% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$6,895
Realized−$506
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions19
Markets (closed)72 / 83
History coverage164d
Avg bet$726
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $3,205 $3,203 −$2 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,207 $1,206 −$1 (-0%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 81¢ 80¢ $810 $805 −$5 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $781 $777 −$4 (-1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $318 $300 −$18 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $211 $211 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? No 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 89¢ 89¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80%? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Grok 4.20 released by January 15? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Grok 4.20 released by January 31? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $2,285 −$20 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,229 +$14 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $620 −$6 -1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 20 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,955 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $422 −$11 -3%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,521 −$7 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $3,600 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $5,991 −$11 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,921 −$11 -0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,856 −$6 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,202 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 03 $8 +$1 +8%
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify lis Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 21? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 21? Jun 03 $12 $0 +2%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs Lupus Esports (BO3) - EBL Playoffs Apr 20 $6 $0 +3%
LoL: French Flair vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs Apr 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Feb 20 $3 +$1 +18%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Quali Feb 20 $24 +$61 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on February 11? Feb 20 $400 +$1 +0%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st D Feb 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 9? Feb 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on February 9 Feb 11 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on Febr Feb 11 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February Feb 11 $1,300 +$2 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 08 $10,923 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Feb 08 $11,901 $0 -0%
Curfew in Minneapolis-Saint Paul by Monday? Jan 12 $4 −$1 -36%
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be between 150k and 175k? Jan 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Player 174 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jan 11 $20 −$1 -3%
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be at least 200k? Jan 11 $24 −$1 -6%
Will 8 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Jan 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will 6 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? Jan 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will Player 152 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jan 11 $12 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $830 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $1,212 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $783 1h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 81¢ $816 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $841 1h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $459 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $50 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $47 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $18 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $39 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $17 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $444 3h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $620 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $211 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $443 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $3,217 6h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 17h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 17h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 17h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 18h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 19h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 19h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 19h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $100 20h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 21h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $130 24h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,894.65 · official $6,894.64 (match) · 500 history records