Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1682…b272
crypto · 64 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$75 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$73 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day414.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$73
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Up 77¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Down 29¢ 32¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 49¢ 66¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 74¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 51¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 39¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Up 43¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$19 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$18 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -83%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$14 -69%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $66 −$30 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -17.1% -25.0% 47% 37% -25.8%
≤30d 60 -17.1% -25.0% 47% 37% -25.8%
≤90d 60 -17.1% -25.0% 47% 37% -25.8%
all 60 -17.1% -25.0% 47% 37% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover414.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 37% -25.8%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 28% -32.9%
15% -38.8% 25% -39.4%
20% -44.8% 20% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.29 · official $20.20 (match) · 474 history records