Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x1681…bbbe crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+6%) realized +$61 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate74%67W / 24L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$31
14 days+$44
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$17
weather 33% +$46
culture 3% +$8
tech 0% −$3
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +27.2% +15.1% 78% 56% +12.8%
≤30d 40 +13.3% +2.5% 75% 52% +4.1%
≤90d 41 +10.6% +0.0% 73% 51% +3.0%
all 91 +7.6% -2.7% 74% 57% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 57% -4.1%
10% -12.0% 41% -13.3%
15% -20.5% 22% -21.6%
20% -28.3% 11% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses67 / 24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage121d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? No 90¢ 96¢ $123 $131 +$8 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? Yes 19¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +293%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Jun 01 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 30? May 30 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $10 −$4 -34%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Feb 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 18 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 18 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 18 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 18 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $78 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 45¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 56¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.27 · official $131.59 (match) · 270 history records