Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x167e…28d9 crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,760 (+4%) realized +$1,716 · open +$1,044
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%56W / 51L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$603per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,983
7 days−$2,816
14 days−$3,088
30 days−$2,185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$4,736
sports 17% −$2,605
other 3% +$316
finance 1% −$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -36.7% -42.7% 32% 25% -22.8%
≤30d 77 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 43% -13.4%
≤90d 107 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 48% -7.9%
all 107 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 48% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 48% -7.9%
10% -22.8% 41% -16.7%
15% -30.2% 26% -24.8%
20% -37.1% 18% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$821) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$315 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$3,535
Realized+$1,716
Unrealized+$1,044
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses56 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage45d
Avg bet$603
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 73¢ 98¢ $1,427 $1,911 +$484 (+34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? No 55¢ 86¢ $600 $940 +$340 (+57%)
Will XRP dip to $1.10 June 15-21? No 58¢ 86¢ $464 $684 +$220 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,116 +$307 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? Jun 20 $1,627 +$478 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $18 −$15 -82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $1,326 +$1,398 +105%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 18 $2,785 +$3,084 +111%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,192 −$1,174 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $207 −$95 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 29? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $212 −$204 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 17 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 14? Jun 17 $657 −$657 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 12? Jun 17 $1,784 −$1,784 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 17 $3,052 −$3,052 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $570 −$570 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $211 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $265 +$175 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $181 +$138 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $811 −$643 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $213 +$586 +276%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $510 −$70 -14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $637 +$32 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $39 −$29 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $302 −$263 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $55 +$43 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $226 −$171 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $171 +$55 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2,413 −$2,257 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1,320 −$942 -71%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $2,662 +$706 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1,526 +$466 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1,620 +$577 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $1,138 +$482 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,118 +$181 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $718 −$314 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,344 +$656 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 24? Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 10 $302 −$302 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 10 $218 −$218 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 10 $158 −$158 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 87¢ $2,116 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 8¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 43¢ $18 13h
Will XRP dip to $1.10 June 15-21? BUY No 58¢ $464 13h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 55¢ $619 16h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $1,627 18h
Will XRP dip to $1.10 June 15-21? BUY No 43¢ $0 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 73¢ $1,454 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 46¢ $1,038 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 51¢ $288 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 96¢ $2,782 38h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $910 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 94¢ $912 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $112 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 30¢ $112 40h
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $170 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 51¢ $207 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 94¢ $374 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 90¢ $1,617 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 90¢ $183 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 43¢ $2,785 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,535.13 · official $3,529.63 (match) · 361 history records