Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x167d…365c crypto 276 markets active 9d ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate67%186W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$44
weather 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 50 +0.6% -8.9% 74% 26% -19.2%
≤90d 276 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 32% -12.5%
all 276 -4.7% -13.8% 67% 32% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 32% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 19% -20.8%
15% -29.6% 12% -28.5%
20% -36.5% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses186 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)276 / 276
History coverage35d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 276 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1748 history records