Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
16 0x167b…f53d politics 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,209 (-1%) realized −$1,208 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%39W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$992per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$16
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$76
other 31% −$70
sports 13% −$1,047
culture 2% −$4
world 2% −$12
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -9.9% -18.5% 8% 2% -11.3%
all 130 +3.6% -6.3% 30% 13% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 13% -10.4%
10% -15.3% 13% -19.0%
15% -23.4% 12% -26.8%
20% -30.9% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,335) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$1,138
Realized−$1,208
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses39 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage139d
Avg bet$992
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $871 $871 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $268 $268 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,104 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,152 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,227 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $4,000 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,025 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $338 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $596 +$2 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,807 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,010 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $615 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $911 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $3,539 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,567 −$3 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,439 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $711 +$1 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $517 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,351 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $5,807 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,284 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,335 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $2,976 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $4,133 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,588 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,876 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,433 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $417 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $424 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $324 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $320 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $418 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $268 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 3h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $871 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $859 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $860 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,103 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,150 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,152 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,227 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,372 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,194 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,196 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,303 12d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,304 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,265 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,267 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,476 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,478 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 15d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,184 15d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,186 16d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $582 18d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $583 18d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $519 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $520 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,138.40 · official $1,138.40 (match) · 426 history records