Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x167a…9e77 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$17
politics 30% $0
other 13% $0
crypto 9% +$1
sports 7% $0
finance 4% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 -2.5% -11.8% 10% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 10 -2.5% -11.8% 10% 0% -11.5%
all 44 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage335d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 83¢ 80¢ $37 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $90 −$5 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $14 −$2 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $23 −$1 -4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $12 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 31 $39 −$8 -21%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Jul 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $220 in July? Jul 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 25 $51 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 22 $36 +$2 +5%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 22 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $37 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $10 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $6 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $13 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $41 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $45 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $39 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $45 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $12 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 44¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.42 · official $35.42 (match) · 135 history records