Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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16 0x167a…d542 sports 670 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (276 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,438 (+5%) realized +$3,472 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate40%387W / 582L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day276.5pace
Fees−$525est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$1,751
crypto 35% −$838
other 2% +$268
world 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (276 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 608 -51.4% -56.0% 35% 28% -80.1%
≤30d 969 -35.0% -41.2% 40% 28% -47.9%
≤90d 969 -35.0% -41.2% 40% 28% -47.9%
all 969 -35.0% -41.2% 40% 28% -47.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover276.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.2% 28% -47.9%
10% ← realistic here -46.8% 22% -52.9%
15% -51.9% 17% -57.4%
20% -56.7% 13% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$96 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$3,472
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses387 / 582
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$525
Open positions4
Markets (closed)969 / 670
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day276.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 969 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 84¢ 81¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Juan Bautista Torres 68¢ 20¢ $44 $13 −$31 (-70%)
Gonzalo Villanueva vs. Juan Bautista Torres: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 61¢ 35¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Petra Marcinko vs. Aoi Ito: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 57¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $288 −$288 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $632 −$632 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $493 −$493 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $275 −$275 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Eala vs Sawangkaew Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 84¢ $50 50m
Gonzalo Villanueva vs. Juan Bautista Torres: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $3 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 68¢ $45 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 52¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 52¢ $32 1h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 92¢ $50 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 81¢ $50 2h
Set Handicap: Bueno (-1.5) vs Berkieta (+1.5) BUY Bueno 83¢ $8 2h
Set Handicap: Parisca (-1.5) vs Taverna (+1.5) BUY Taverna 78¢ $4 2h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 53¢ $27 2h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 74¢ $43 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 89¢ $50 3h
Set 1 Winner: Vandromme vs Zamarripa BUY Vandromme 87¢ $4 3h
Set Handicap: Hijikata (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5) BUY Hijikata 90¢ $6 4h
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis BUY Enrico Dalla Valle 93¢ $49 4h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Rinky Hijikata 96¢ $16 4h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 98¢ $8 4h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 97¢ $50 4h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 84¢ $50 5h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson BUY Fiona Ferro 90¢ $50 5h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 87¢ $29 5h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 73¢ $50 5h
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Pliskova BUY Pliskova 73¢ $39 5h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 86¢ $21 6h
Fiona Ferro vs. Kajsa Rinaldo Persson: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 63¢ $3 6h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $8 6h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao BUY Xiyu Wang 85¢ $50 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Anastasia Kulikova 78¢ $50 6h
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Pliskova BUY Pliskova 86¢ $11 6h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 66¢ $42 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.15 · official $74.78 · 3500 history records