Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1677…abdf crypto 296 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$838 (-5%) realized −$882 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%228W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$275
14 days−$818
30 days−$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$905
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -5.9% -14.9% 76% 59% -16.1%
≤30d 291 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 56% -15.2%
≤90d 294 -4.8% -13.8% 78% 56% -15.1%
all 294 -4.8% -13.8% 78% 56% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 56% -15.1%
10% -22.1% 33% -23.2%
15% -29.6% 13% -30.7%
20% -36.5% 5% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$53 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$882
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses228 / 66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)294 / 296
History coverage49d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 0¢ 72¢ $0 $45 +$45 (+0%)
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? Yes 97¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$27 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$23 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$22 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$19 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$28 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$14 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$29 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$17 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$14 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$18 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$14 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$15 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$20 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$24 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$16 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $51 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $51 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.93 · official $43.80 · 524 history records