Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1677…8944 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-6%) realized −$124 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$96
sports 29% +$7
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 41% -16.2%
≤30d 32 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 41% -16.2%
≤90d 32 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 41% -16.2%
all 32 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 41% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 41% -16.2%
10% -30.5% 34% -24.2%
15% -37.2% 31% -31.6%
20% -43.3% 16% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$27 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage7d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 −$36 -27%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$39 -64%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 +$29 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$67 -66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$56 -56%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$24 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$24 -80%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$35 +172%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 +$26 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 39¢ $61 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 29h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $34 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 46h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $44 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $89 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.84 · official $71.98 (match) · 71 history records