Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1677…d80e
sports · 33 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$4 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $19 +$1 +8%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 $0 +47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 31 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $8 +$8 +106%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% +$8
other 16% −$2
crypto 14% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 26h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 36h
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 36h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $19 6d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $1 7d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 7d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 9d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 9d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -35.1% -41.3% 38% 31% -10.5%
≤30d 32 -28.9% -35.7% 44% 28% -6.4%
≤90d 32 -28.9% -35.7% 44% 28% -6.4%
all 32 -28.9% -35.7% 44% 28% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 28% -6.4%
10% -41.9% 28% -15.3%
15% -47.5% 25% -23.5%
20% -52.6% 16% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 69 history records