Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

16 0x1675…5881 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$372 (+22%) realized +$383 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%7W / 4L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$119per market

Trades / day12.3pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$663now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)-2.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+8.3%	-2.0%	64%	64%	+19.9%
≤30d	11	+8.3%	-2.0%	64%	64%	+19.9%
≤90d	11	+8.3%	-2.0%	64%	64%	+19.9%
all	11	+8.3%	-2.0%	64%	64%	+19.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.0%	64%	+19.9%
10%	-11.4%	64%	+8.4%
15%	-19.9%	45%	-2.1%
20%	-27.8%	45%	-11.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$78 vs −$58 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$663

Realized+$383

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses7 / 4

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions3

Markets (closed)11 / 14

History coverage3d

Avg bet$119

Trades / day12.3

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$555	$554	−$2 (-0%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	59¢	51¢	$65	$56	−$9 (-14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$54	$53	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$54	+$48	+89%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	Jun 20	$53	−$52	-99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)	Jun 20	$53	−$52	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$114	+$70	+62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$54	+$59	+109%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$72	−$71	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$57	+$18	+32%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$60	−$59	-98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Jun 17	$208	+$252	+121%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$136	+$73	+54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$109	+$27	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$4	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$50	1h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	52¢	$34	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$1	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$1	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$2	2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$169	2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	SELL Brazil	100¢	$101	2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	BUY Brazil	51¢	$53	2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5)	BUY Brazil	51¢	$53	3h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$4	20h
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$28	20h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	52¢	$54	21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$4	23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$109	23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$54	34h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	BUY Czechia	40¢	$72	36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	71¢	$72	36h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$5	47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	51¢	$3	47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$52	47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$1	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$1	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$19	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$1	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$6	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.80 · official $662.80 (match) · 43 history records