Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1671…23b4 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
other 19% +$2
politics 15% +$1
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% +$4
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -1.7% -11.1% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -1.7% -11.1% 17% 0% -10.1%
all 38 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 8% -8.9%
10% -15.0% 8% -17.6%
15% -23.2% 3% -25.6%
20% -30.8% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage453d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $63 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $45 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $8 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $9 +$2 +27%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 19 $7 $0 -0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 17 $2 $0 +23%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 03 $2 $0 -16%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $17 $0 +0%
Ye divorce before April? Mar 28 $17 $0 +0%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 28 $2 +$4 +202%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 12h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $40 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $40 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $43 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $42 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $32 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 21d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $0 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $44 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $45 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.95 · official $43.95 (match) · 128 history records