Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x166f…b4db world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$5
politics 22% $0
other 13% −$1
sports 11% $0
culture 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.8% -11.2% 0% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 0% -11.1%
all 39 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage303d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $34 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 −$4 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 −$2 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $29 +$3 +10%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Aug 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $27 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 26 $2 $0 -4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 22 $27 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 21 $2 $0 +4%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $3 $0 +6%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $37 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $6 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $7 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $12 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $4 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $28 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.57 · official $36.57 (match) · 145 history records