Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x166d…42a4
crypto · 148 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$359 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$401 · open +$43
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$211
Realized−$401
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses77 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)137 / 148
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day894.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 11 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$401
7 days−$401
14 days−$401
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 76¢ $45 $72 +$27 (+61%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $49 +$17 (+50%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $17 $17 −$1 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+19%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$12 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$6 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$18 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$24 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$19 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$15 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$9 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$457
other 5% +$92
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 50% -17.7%
≤30d 137 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 50% -17.7%
≤90d 137 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 50% -17.7%
all 137 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 50% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover894.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 50% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -25.6%
15% -23.6% 40% -32.8%
20% -31.1% 32% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.41 · official $211.47 (match) · 1003 history records