Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
16 0x166c…ae55 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,476 (+11%) realized +$1,659 · open −$183
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$648per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$90
14 days+$445
30 days+$1,608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$1,227
other 32% +$204
sports 1% −$79
politics 1% −$24
crypto 0% +$31
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.2% +5.1% 33% 33% -6.1%
≤30d 13 +10.8% +0.2% 62% 38% +3.5%
≤90d 14 +4.8% -5.1% 57% 36% +2.8%
all 14 +4.8% -5.1% 57% 36% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 36% +2.8%
10% -14.2% 36% -7.0%
15% -22.5% 21% -16.0%
20% -30.1% 21% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$37 · ×5.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.95 per $1 lost it wins $7.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2,123
Realized+$1,659
Unrealized−$183
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage65d
Avg bet$648
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $700 $763 +$63 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $600 $468 −$132 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $500 $467 −$33 (-7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $350 $310 −$40 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 16¢ $48 $39 −$9 (-18%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $8 $1 −$7 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,216 −$113 -9%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $359 +$212 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $776 −$9 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $514 +$258 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -94%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1,117 +$106 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $1,080 +$16 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,686 +$590 +35%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $51 +$39 +76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $1,100 −$12 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,158 +$492 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $990 +$45 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $100 −$6 -6%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $100 −$72 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,103 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $571 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $49 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $359 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $359 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $767 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $776 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $771 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? BUY No 13¢ $8 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,216 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,223 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,117 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $1,096 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,276 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $88 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? SELL Yes 78¢ $90 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $8 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $1,080 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL No 90¢ $1,088 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 91¢ $1,100 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1,500 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1,000 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1,030 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,122.66 · official $2,122.66 (match) · 107 history records