Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x166a…19cf other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% $0
world 27% −$3
politics 19% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 12 -4.7% -13.8% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 12 -4.7% -13.8% 17% 0% -10.2%
all 45 -1.5% -10.9% 24% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage301d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $21 +$1 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $36 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -58%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $82 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $47 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $4 $0 -5%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 25 $28 $0 -1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 25 $6 $0 -5%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 74°F or below on August 25? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 24m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $27 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $36 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $36 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $7 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $13 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records