Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x166a…d7ed
world · 222 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5,682 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,708 · open +$490
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15,663
Realized+$1,708
Unrealized+$490
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses83 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions120
Markets (closed)135 / 222
History coverage49d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 120 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$567
7 days−$77
14 days+$646
30 days−$569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $1,162 $1,001 −$161 (-14%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $741 $930 +$189 (+25%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 82¢ $715 $825 +$110 (+15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $624 $725 +$101 (+16%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $638 $717 +$79 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $647 $688 +$41 (+6%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 60¢ 64¢ $603 $647 +$44 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $475 $542 +$67 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 69¢ $434 $511 +$76 (+18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 80¢ $384 $483 +$99 (+26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $498 $475 −$23 (-5%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 60¢ $336 $456 +$120 (+36%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $423 $452 +$29 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 52¢ 58¢ $397 $443 +$46 (+12%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 80¢ 84¢ $416 $437 +$21 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $307 $392 +$85 (+28%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $233 $333 +$100 (+43%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 59¢ 82¢ $209 $293 +$84 (+40%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 63¢ 67¢ $258 $275 +$16 (+6%)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $225 $246 +$21 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $204 $226 +$22 (+11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $273 $210 −$63 (-23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $311 $185 −$126 (-41%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $194 $178 −$16 (-8%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 76¢ 80¢ $153 $161 +$8 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $324 +$21 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $981 −$244 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2,153 +$254 +12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $227 +$596 +262%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $2 +$6 +383%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $1 +$2 +120%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 08 $6 +$6 +90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $444 +$107 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $113 −$113 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $949 −$707 -74%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $68 +$32 +47%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 +$210 +525%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $248 −$158 -64%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $6 +$3 +46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $135 −$135 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $21 −$14 -69%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $535 −$178 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $3,170 +$312 +10%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $51 −$17 -34%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? Jun 02 $605 +$65 +11%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $1,139 +$92 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1,659 −$302 -18%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 01 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 01 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31? Jun 01 $71 +$9 +12%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 +$54 +306%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $62 +$32 +52%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $675 −$10 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,880 −$31 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? Jun 01 $104 −$36 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $85 −$13 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $279 −$222 -80%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $109 −$3 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $328 +$78 +24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $14 +$14 +100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1,571 +$30 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? May 30 $431 +$190 +44%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $3,880 +$789 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1,737 +$55 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 81% +$2,011
other 11% +$92
finance 6% −$363
politics 1% +$169
crypto 0% +$38
tech 0% +$32
sports 0% +$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 47m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 49m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $10 54m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $41 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $48 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $68 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $152 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $43 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $110 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $89 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $63 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $67 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $180 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 4h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $820 4h
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $46 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 38¢ $3 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 38¢ $1 9h
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 10¢ $0 12h
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 10¢ $0 12h
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 10¢ $2 12h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $410 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +41.6% +28.1% 57% 52% -10.8%
≤30d 100 +23.5% +11.7% 58% 43% -10.7%
≤90d 135 +43.4% +29.7% 61% 44% -6.7%
all 135 +43.4% +29.7% 61% 44% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.7% 44% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here +17.3% 36% -15.6%
15% +6.0% 26% -23.8%
20% -4.4% 21% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,662.62 · official $15,726.51 (match) · 3500 history records