Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1668…41cb crypto 59 markets active 6d ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate61%36W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$15
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.0% -27.6% 67% 20% -9.3%
≤30d 53 -12.8% -21.1% 62% 17% -11.9%
≤90d 59 -13.2% -21.5% 61% 19% -12.7%
all 59 -13.2% -21.5% 61% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 19% -12.7%
10% -29.0% 10% -21.0%
15% -35.8% 3% -28.6%
20% -42.1% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses36 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage78d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Edson Álvarez: 2+ goals Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 24 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 24 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 24 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 24 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 24 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 24 $0 $0 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 5d
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Edson Álvarez: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 212 history records