Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1666…fe57 sports 163 markets active 16d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-6%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%47W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$63
world 17% −$1
other 12% −$1
crypto 4% −$17
politics 2% −$8
tech 2% +$39
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 148 -23.7% -31.0% 24% 22% -39.3%
≤90d 163 -8.2% -16.9% 29% 26% -16.5%
all 163 -8.2% -16.9% 29% 26% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 26% -16.5%
10% -24.9% 22% -24.5%
15% -32.1% 21% -31.8%
20% -38.8% 18% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses47 / 116
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage30d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +284%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: IK Start (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $18 −$1 -7%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $24 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 53¢ $0 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $0 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 16d
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 16d
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 16d
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 16d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 28¢ $1 16d
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 31¢ $2 16d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Joventut 12¢ $2 16d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 26¢ $2 16d
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $3 16d
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $3 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 44¢ $6 16d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $2 17d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $2 17d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 19¢ $2 17d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 41¢ $3 17d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 41¢ $3 17d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 21¢ $2 17d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 20¢ $2 17d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Andrea Collarini 10¢ $2 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 17d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 0¢ $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records