Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1661…4b37 sports 99 markets active 4d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,839 (-5%) realized −$2,839 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%52W / 47L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$677est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days+$44
30 days−$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,465
other 2% +$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.9% -36.6% 42% 42% -12.3%
≤30d 38 -17.2% -25.1% 47% 45% -21.0%
≤90d 94 -7.9% -16.7% 52% 49% -13.7%
all 99 -7.3% -16.2% 53% 49% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 49% -14.9%
10% -24.2% 40% -23.0%
15% -31.5% 33% -30.5%
20% -38.2% 26% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$722) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$404 vs −$514 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,839
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses52 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$677
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage118d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $54 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $108 −$106 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $127 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $308 +$273 +89%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $150 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $198 +$51 +26%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $252 −$247 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $48 −$47 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $152 +$147 +97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $164 +$186 +114%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $141 +$22 +16%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $108 −$106 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $109 +$33 +30%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 05 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 05 $109 +$275 +253%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 04 $109 +$50 +46%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 02 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs TDK (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Eu May 30 $1,159 −$66 -6%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs TNC (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Euro May 29 $91 −$90 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $595 +$235 +40%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi May 23 $2,288 −$2,273 -99%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $209 +$114 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $138 +$72 +52%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Ser May 21 $117 +$21 +18%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $100 +$17 +17%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 19 $21 −$21 -98%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) May 19 $59 +$62 +105%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage May 19 $54 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK - Map 2 Winner May 19 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 18 $329 −$324 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner May 18 $250 −$248 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof May 18 $1,234 +$729 +59%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 18 $630 +$269 +43%
Map Handicap: AM (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5) May 18 $640 −$640 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner May 18 $435 −$435 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series May 18 $627 +$1,154 +184%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 17 $528 −$524 -99%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner May 17 $503 +$113 +23%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $347 +$953 +275%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - Exort Series Playoffs May 17 $154 +$93 +61%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Lynn Vision (BO5) - Asian Champions League May 17 $183 +$70 +38%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs ex-HEROIC (+1.5) May 17 $183 −$46 -25%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 16 $612 −$603 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Infinite (BO3) - Exort Series Playoffs May 16 $100 +$15 +15%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm May 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winner May 16 $1,701 −$1,699 -100%
Counter-Strike: SHISHKA vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - CCT Europe Con May 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage May 16 $1,167 −$1,154 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) BUY Vitality 60¢ $54 3d
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY HEROIC Academy 17¢ $108 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $127 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $580 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $217 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 12¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $91 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 11¢ $50 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 18¢ $99 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $248 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $198 5d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY AM Gaming 23¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY AM Gaming 41¢ $152 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY Virtus.pro $48 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $300 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $152 5d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series SELL Walczaki 100¢ $350 6d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Walczaki 46¢ $164 6d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL Ground Zero 99¢ $163 6d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 85¢ $141 6d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Oxuji Esports 23¢ $108 7d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Lavked 100¢ $142 7d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Lavked 76¢ $109 7d
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY Oxuji Esports 47¢ $100 11d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Lavked 99¢ $384 11d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs MANA eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Lavked 27¢ $109 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 43¢ $60 12d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group SELL Walczaki 99¢ $159 12d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY Walczaki 67¢ $109 12d
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe S BUY Rebels Gaming 68¢ $32 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 379 history records