Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1661…6461
crypto · 171 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$85 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses98 / 67
Open positions6
Markets (closed)165 / 171
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day62.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 165 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 76¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 38¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +173%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +53%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$82
other 1% −$3
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -8.6% -17.3% 59% 41% -15.9%
≤30d 165 -8.6% -17.3% 59% 41% -15.9%
≤90d 165 -8.6% -17.3% 59% 41% -15.9%
all 165 -8.6% -17.3% 59% 41% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover62.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 41% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 33% -23.9%
15% -32.4% 28% -31.3%
20% -39.1% 19% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.81 · official $4.81 (match) · 399 history records